Bitcoin rose 6.7% on Monday to close at $86,620 on Binance, its highest daily close since January 28, after trading as high as $87,396. On Tuesday morning it eased 1.3% to about $85,500 by 06:37 UTC.

The rally came as a fourth straight fall in oil prices pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%, while roughly $648 million of bearish bets were liquidated during the day, according to CoinGlass data cited by 24/7 Wall St. Strategy also disclosed a purchase of 950 BTC.

For my chart, Monday’s close matters more than the intraday high. It fired the trigger I set out last week and opened the way toward the $98,000 to $99,500 resistance zone.

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What Pushed Bitcoin Higher on Monday?

The move started from a technical milestone. Bitcoin ended the week on Sunday at $81,159, above its 50-week moving average of about $78,786. It was the first such weekly close since November 9, 2025, according to Galaxy Research.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said the 50-week average has historically acted as a ceiling during major drawdowns. Galaxy counted 13 weekly closes back above it since 2011, and in 11 of them bitcoin did not go on to set a new low.

Once the price cleared $84,000, about $262 million of short positions were liquidated within an hour, CoinGlass data show. Corporate buyers returned at the same time.

Strategy bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average price of $79,670, lifting its holdings to 846,000 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Strive separately disclosed a purchase of 1,355 BTC.

What Does My Bitcoin Chart Show Now?

In my September 18 analysis, I treated a daily close above $82,614 as the signal that would activate a move toward $98,068 to $99,486. Monday’s close at $86,620 met that condition with room to spare.

The close also took bitcoin out of the consolidation that had held it between roughly $75,300 and $82,600 since late August. That range formed after the August breakout and capped every rally for almost four weeks.

The rest of the setup has turned in the bulls’ favor too. In June, I still treated the $82,000 to $85,000 band as the upper edge of a bearish range, and bitcoin now trades above that band.

Why I Expect a Pullback Before the Next Leg

My base case is not a straight line higher. Textbook technical analysis says a broken resistance often gets retested from above, and I expect bitcoin to pull back toward $82,614, about 3.4% below Tuesday’s price.

If buyers defend that level, the old ceiling turns into a floor. That change of polarity is what would confirm the breakout, and it would be a healthier base for the next leg than a vertical move without a retest.

The next target is the $98,068 to $99,486 zone, just above the January 14 peak of $97,924. From $82,614, that is an upside of 19% to 20%. It also puts the psychological $100,000 level, about 17% above the current price, back within reach.

Below the breakout level, bitcoin has a thick cushion. The 50-day EMA at $75,426 and the 200-day EMA at $73,643 sit close to the $75,339 support, and the 50-day line has been above the 200-day since September 12.

What Are Analysts Watching After the Breakout?

Analysts at Bitfinex said the rally has lifted bitcoin about 50% from its July 1 low, which was $57,800 on Binance. In the firm’s view, recoveries of that size have historically marked the start of new bull markets rather than bear-market bounces.

They called the $85,000 area “a litmus test” for the whole move, in comments sent to FinanceMagnates.com. They also noted that bitcoin has moved above the corporate treasury cost basis of about $80,500, so public-company holdings are back in profit on aggregate.

The counterweight is macro. Bitfinex puts the 10-year real yield at about 2.68% and sees levels above 2.5% as likely to cap bitcoin. It also flagged Friday’s options expiry on September 25 as a test of whether the breakout draws fresh spot demand.

Bitfinex said three signals would confirm the breakout: net taker buying, rising open interest measured in coins, and short-term holders sending fewer than 20,000 BTC a day to exchanges.

ETF demand has been uneven. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $6.21 million in the week to September 19, after $746 million of outflows on September 15 and 16, 24/7 Wall St reported.

Bank forecasts are split. As I noted last week, Standard Chartered expects $100,000 by the end of 2026.

Citi has a 12-month target of $82,000, a level bitcoin already trades above.

Bitcoin has also kept rising through the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023 and a failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, both of which came last week.

What Would Break the Bullish Case?

The scenario fails only if bitcoin closes back below the current support near $82,000, specifically $82,614 on my chart. That would put the price back inside the late-August range and point toward $75,339 and the moving averages.

The next macro tests come quickly: the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading on September 25 and the August PCE inflation report on September 30.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More

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