Bitcoin traded at $79,325 at 07:50 UTC on September 7, down 1.27% on the daily Binance candle. Another attempt to hold above $80,000 had stalled.

The price remains about 4% below the $82,614 resistance on my chart. US spot Bitcoin ETFs still attracted almost $1 billion over the latest five trading sessions.

The trend signal underneath the price is considerably closer than it was a week ago. The gap between Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages has narrowed from 3.17% to 0.93%, leaving a potential golden cross close but still unconfirmed.

The result is a split setup. My September 1 Bitcoin analysis correctly identified the moving-average convergence, but the $81,500-$84,400 supply band continues to stop the price confirmation needed for a move toward $100,000.

How Close Is Bitcoin’s Golden Cross?

My updated daily chart puts EMA 50 at $72,068.83 and EMA 200 at $72,744.96. The faster average remains $676.13 below the slower line, compared with a $2,293.25 gap on September 1.

The two averages could cross if their current direction persists, but the signal is not official until EMA 50 moves above EMA 200. Price is already trading comfortably above both lines, which keeps the medium-term structure constructive while BTC remains inside the wider range.

Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that structure to support a gradual advance rather than a sudden breakout.

“Many hodlers are now less reactive to macro news,” Howard said in commentary shared with FinanceMagnates.com, linking the shift to longer investment horizons.

Why $987 Million of ETF Inflows Did Not Break $82,614

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $986.7 million of net inflows over the five sessions from August 31 through September 4, according to Farside Investors. The sequence included a $236.5 million outflow on September 1, followed by three positive sessions totaling just over $1 billion.

That demand helped BTC remain above the mid-$70,000s, but it did not absorb enough supply to deliver a daily close above the chart’s resistance band. The $82,614 line sits inside the broader $81,500-$84,400 area built from the May highs and earlier range structure.

Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, described the options market as a hedged long rather than an outright defensive position.

He said roughly $1.4 billion of September puts sat between $68,000 and $75,000 on Deribit. Call open interest from $82,000 to $100,000 outweighed that put band.

“From our perspective that is a hedged long: holding the position, insuring the tail,” Haeems said. Investors are retaining upside exposure without abandoning downside protection.

The positioning maps closely onto the chart. The first downside test is $75,338, while the call-heavy zone begins near the resistance BTC has not yet cleared.

Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000 From Here?

My base case remains conditional. A completed golden cross would confirm the improvement in trend, but a daily close above $84,400 is the price trigger that would open $98,068.26 and then $100,000.

The $100,000 target is 26.1% above the chart’s $79,325 reference price. Howard also expects a “steady ascent back to $100k before year-end,” while arguing that progress on US digital-asset market structure legislation could affect follow-through demand.

The more optimistic forecasts do not change the order of the technical hurdles. BTC first needs to clear $82,614 and close above $84,400.

A failure at resistance followed by a daily close below $75,338 would expose EMA 200 near $72,745. That would weaken the bullish setup before the golden cross can be treated as actionable confirmation.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More

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