A monthly close beneath the 50-month exponential moving average has turned Bitcoin’s long-term trend lower, leaving BTC near $62,830 on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, after the token’s steepest monthly loss since June 2022. June erased more than 20% and dragged price under the $60,000 to $65,000 shelf built at the 2021 peak, a zone that had held as support since early 2023.
My bearish Bitcoin price prediction now reads this break as a trend reversal on the highest timeframe I track. The week ahead weighs Strategy’s first large Bitcoin sale, a soft June payrolls print, and the July 28 to 29 Federal Reserve meeting.
Follow me on X for real-time Bitcoin market analysis: @ChmielDk
Why Is Bitcoin Falling on the Monthly Chart?
The trigger for the monthly break sits outside the chart. Strategy disclosed on July 6 that it sold 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million between June 29 and July 5, the largest disposal in the company’s history and only its second sale since 2022.
Michael Saylor’s firm used the cash to cover dividends on its preferred securities, leaving 843,775 BTC and $2.55 billion in reserves as of July 5. The sale landed as a signal, not as supply large enough to move a $1.3 trillion market.
Grayscale Research read the move as constructive. Strategy’s willingness to sell for dollars “reduces tail risk and could help bitcoin find a more durable bottom,” said Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale.
[#highlighted-links#]
Pandl estimates the annual dividend load near $1.5 billion, and the fresh cash now covers roughly 17 months of those payments, which he argues lowers the odds of forced selling into weakness.
The macro backdrop offered a second-hand bid. June payrolls rose just 57,000 against forecasts above 100,000, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%, a miss that revived expectations for a rate cut at the July meeting.
Softer labor data lowers the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The Fed hold and the record June ETF outflows that set up this break are covered in my analysis when the weekly candle lost $60,000.
Key drivers of the June break:
Strategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale, its first large disposal, read as a confidence signal about financing stress A soft June payrolls report, 57,000 jobs versus forecasts above 100,000, reviving July rate-cut bets Record June spot Bitcoin ETF outflows that flipped 2026 flows negative A monthly close below the 50-month EMA at $65,464, the first since early 2023 The $60,000 to $65,000 shelf from 2021 flipping from support to resistanceBitcoin Technical Analysis: The 50-Month EMA Break
My monthly chart of BTC/USDT tells a cleaner story than any daily wick this year. Price closed June near $58,600, below both the 50-month EMA at $65,464.73 and the $60,000 to $65,000 band drawn across the 2021 highs. That band capped the last cycle and then served as a floor on every retest since early 2023, so a monthly close beneath it is a role reversal, not noise.
In 15 years charting Bitcoin at FinanceMagnates.com, detailed on my analyst page, I have watched that 2021 zone hold as support through the entire 2023 to 2025 advance, and a close back under it changes the entire structure.
The same monthly signal broke on XRP in June, a parallel I traced in my recent XRP analysis. July’s bounce back toward $63,000 does not repair the damage on Bitcoin. Price is retesting the underside of the 50-month EMA, the classic behavior of a broken level, and the long-term uptrend that ran without a monthly EMA breach since early 2023 has now flipped lower. My bias stays bearish while BTC trades beneath $65,464 on a monthly basis.
The monthly timeframe raises the stakes over the weekly break I flagged on June 30. A weekly close can be reclaimed inside a month, but a monthly close beneath a moving average that has framed the entire bull phase is a slower, heavier signal. That is the distinction between a correction and a trend change, and June delivered the latter.
The downside map is a stack of former pivots. My first target is $49,024, the August 2024 monthly lows and a roughly 22% drop from spot. Below it, $30,308 marks the June 2021 support and mid-2023 resistance, near a 52% decline. The ultimate bearish objective is $15,750, the 2022 to 2023 bear-market floor from which the last rally to $126,000 began, a fall of about 75%.
Two conditions would flip my read. A monthly close back above $65,464 and the $65,000 top of the band would neutralize the break and reopen the highs. Until that happens, every rally into the low $60,000s is a lower high beneath resistance. I mapped the opposite, bullish case earlier this year in my $240,000 Bitcoin price prediction, and none of its triggers are on the chart today.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Bitcoin Price Predictions
The institutional range now brackets my monthly targets from both sides. The most bullish near-term take frames the Strategy sale as a floor. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Lead at Bitrue Research Institute, called it “a smart, stabilizing move that actually strengthens the setup for Bitcoin.” He ties the quick recovery above $64,000 to the reduced financing overhang rather than to fresh demand, which is exactly why I read the bounce as a retest, not a reversal.
Citi cut its 12-month target to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1, with a $53,000 bear case, a downgrade I broke down in my previous analysis. The far-bull markers have not moved with price. Standard Chartered and Bernstein still carry $150,000 targets that assume a macro turn, while the July seasonality crowd looks for a $56,000 to $62,000 range into the Fed decision. Both sit on the wrong side of my $65,464 line, the level that decides whether July’s bounce is a base or a lower high.
Bitcoin Price Prediction FAQ
How Low Can Bitcoin Go in 2026?
My monthly chart points to three levels below spot. The first target is $49,024, the August 2024 lows, about 22% under the July 8 price near $62,830. A break there opens $30,308, roughly 52% lower, and the deepest objective sits at $15,750, the 2022 bear-market floor and a 75% decline. Those targets stay active while price holds below the 50-month EMA at $65,464.
Why Is Bitcoin Falling in July 2026?
Bitcoin closed June with a loss above 20%, its steepest month since June 2022, driven by macro rather than a crypto failure. Strategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale signaled financing stress, spot ETF flows turned negative for 2026, and the Federal Reserve kept rates elevated. July’s bounce toward $63,000 is a retest of broken support, not proof the selling is finished.
What Is the 50-Month EMA on Bitcoin?
The 50-month exponential moving average tracks Bitcoin’s average price over 50 monthly candles, weighted toward recent months. It sits at $65,464 and had supported every pullback since early 2023. June was the first monthly close beneath it in that span, which is why I treat the move as a long-term trend change rather than a short-term dip.
What Would Reverse the Bitcoin Downtrend?
A monthly close back above $65,464, the 50-month EMA, and the $65,000 top of the 2021 band would neutralize the break and reopen the prior highs. Short of that, my bias stays lower and every push into the low $60,000s reads as a lower high. A July rate cut or renewed ETF inflows would strengthen any recovery attempt.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More
You might also be interested in reading A Look at BTC Wrappers – WBTC, cbBTC, BTCB and Others | Data on Market Cap, Share and Growth.