XRP traded at $1.13 on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, about 9% above a June monthly close of $1.04 that broke three years of chart structure. The month printed a 22% loss and the first monthly close below the $1.26 support that had contained every dip since 2023. My monthly chart also closed beneath the 50-month exponential moving average, a line price held almost without interruption for more than three years.

This XRP price prediction maps what a loss of $1.00 parity opens on the downside: staged targets at $0.67, $0.47, and $0.29. The near-term drivers are Bitcoin‘s floor and a CLARITY Act vote that has slipped into late July.

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XRP Technical Analysis: The First Monthly Close Below $1.26 in Three Years

The June candle is the most important XRP has printed in three years. Price closed the month at $1.04, down 22%, and for the first time since 2023 it settled below the $1.26 shelf that had held the token in check for months. That level is not arbitrary. It aligns with the May 2018 lows and the second-half 2021 resistance, so its loss carries structural weight.

The same candle closed below the 50-month exponential moving average, the line price had tracked above almost without a break for more than three years. In more than 15 years reading these charts, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com and documented on my analyst page, I have watched XRP defend the $1.26 area repeatedly. This is the first monthly close beneath it.

The last line for the bulls is $1.00. My chart shows a decisive loss of parity opening a staged decline toward historical structure below. The first stop is the $0.93 to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone I flagged in my June analysis. Below it, three levels define the bearish path.

A move of roughly 35% from the breakdown zone tests $0.67, the 2018 resistance retested in 2020 and defended through 2023 and 2024. A drop of around 55% reaches $0.47, the extension of that same band near the 50-week moving average. The apogee of the bearish case sits about 71% lower at $0.29, the level that marked the 2018 to 2019 lows and the bear-market floor at the turn of 2022 and 2023.

On the daily chart the same $1.26 resistance is visible, last tested in mid-June. The 50-day EMA now acts as dynamic resistance, tagged in early July and rejected on the retest. XRP sits at $1.13, mid-range, boxed between $1.26 above and the $1.01 to $1.03 late-June lows that guard $1.00 parity. My directional bias stays bearish while price holds under $1.26, and it only flips on a monthly close back above that shelf.

Why Is XRP Going Down?

The June decline was a broad-market event, not an XRP story. Bitcoin fell roughly 20% on the month and slipped below $59,000, and Ethereum, Solana, and BNB dropped with it. When the largest tokens fall together, the selling reflects liquidity rather than any single asset.

Institutional signaling added to the pressure. MicroStrategy confirmed the sale of about $216 million in Bitcoin, and the move is “likely to weigh on sentiment,” said Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent. Howard noted that high-profile institutional sales often trigger copycat de-risking, and that a decision to monetize part of a position can read as a cautious signal for the next three to four months. He added that much of the transaction was probably executed over-the-counter to limit direct market impact.

Regulation removed the one catalyst bulls were counting on. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity under US law, missed its early-July target after the Senate left for recess. The floor vote now sits in late July or early August, per congressional scheduling.

The pressure on XRP comes from four converging factors:

Broad crypto selloff: Bitcoin fell below $59,000 in June, draining altcoin liquidity Institutional signaling: MicroStrategy’s $216M Bitcoin sale dented sentiment, per Wincent’s Howard Stalled regulation: the CLARITY Act floor vote slipped to late July, removing the bull catalyst Macro dependence: Bitcoin’s floor and the Fed’s rate path now move XRP more than any Ripple headline

How Low Can XRP Go? XRP Price Predictions

Forecasts on XRP span an unusually wide range, and each deserves a view against my levels. The table below pairs the major calls with my own read.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick holds a $2.80 base case and an $8.00 bull target, both contingent on the CLARITY Act passing and ETF inflows reaching $10 billion. My view is that the calendar is not delivering that catalyst, so I treat $8 as a 2027 story at best while price trades below $1.26. The 24/7 Wall St call for $0.80 as the next support below $1.00 lines up with the top of my $0.93 to $0.76 band, the first magnet before $0.67.

Changelly’s model averages about $1.17 for July, a range-bound read that only holds while $1.00 survives, and the monthly close argues the other way. Bitcoin Foundation’s $1.20 to $1.35 recovery scenario requires Bitcoin reclaiming its own broken levels first, which makes it a relief bounce rather than a trend change. My base case stays lower: staged downside on any confirmed loss of parity, an extension of the bear path my June 5 analysis tracked and the downside targets I first mapped in January.

FAQ, XRP Price Analysis

Why is the XRP price going down?

XRP fell 22% in June as part of a broad crypto selloff that pushed Bitcoin below $59,000. The decline was macro rather than XRP-specific, compounded by MicroStrategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale and a CLARITY Act floor vote that slipped to late July. The June monthly close below $1.26 turned the technical picture structurally bearish.

What is the key support level for XRP now?

The line that matters is $1.00 parity. Below it, my chart shows the first support at the $0.93 to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone. A monthly close under $1.00 would confirm the breakdown and open the staged targets beneath, starting near $0.67 and extending toward $0.29.

How low can XRP go in 2026?

My analysis maps three downside targets measured from the loss of $1.00 parity: roughly 35% to $0.67, around 55% to $0.47, and about 71% to $0.29. Each aligns with historical structure, from the 2018 resistance at $0.67 to the 2018-19 and 2022-23 lows near $0.29. These activate only on a confirmed monthly loss of parity.

Can XRP still reach $8 this cycle?

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick keeps an $8.00 target, but it is contingent on the CLARITY Act passing and XRP ETF inflows reaching $10 billion. Neither condition is met, and the bill’s floor vote has slipped to late July. With price below $1.26, I treat $8 as a 2027 scenario rather than a 2026 base case.

What would invalidate this bearish XRP price prediction?

A monthly close back above $1.26 would neutralize the breakdown. Beyond that, XRP needs to reclaim the $1.51 to $1.57 ceiling that has capped every rally in 2026 to shift the structure bullish. Until then, my base case stays lower, with $1.00 parity the immediate line to watch.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More

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