After three straight red quarters and the worst monthly close since September 2024, BTC is back above $63K and stringing together green days.

July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s better recovery months: green in 9 of 13 years since 2013, with an average return of around 7%. But history also shows July often brings relief without a new bull leg following.

The key variable this cycle that didn’t exist in previous ones: ETF flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst month on record in June, with around $4.5 billion in net outflows. A green streak means less if institutions are still pulling capital out.

So the debate is whether 5 green closes is momentum building or just the market catching its breath before the next leg down.

What’s your read? relief rally or real shift?

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