ETHBTC has been grinding lower for ten months straight, lower high after lower high, squeezing itself into a smaller and smaller range. normally that kind of grind makes people assume more downside is coming. but the thing that stood out to me is volume kept fading the whole way down. every leg lower had less participation than the one before it.

that’s backwards from what a real breakdown looks like. when sellers are actually in control and pushing price lower, you’d expect volume to pick up, not shrink. fading volume into a squeeze usually means the selling pressure is running out of gas, not building momentum. sellers were getting weaker at the lows, not stronger.

a few days ago price tapped a key retracement zone, reversed sharply, and closed back above the top of that descending range. that reversal is the tell. the actual shift in control happened right there, not three candles later once everyone’s already convinced.

I’m not calling this a guaranteed reversal. if price closes back inside that range on the next few candles, this was a fakeout and the grind lower continues. but until that happens, i’m treating the breakout level as the line that matters, not something to wait on for extra confirmation while it runs away.

ten months of compression like this usually resolves fast once it goes. watching to see if it holds above the range or fall back in…

submitted by /u/Suitable_Acadia_190 [link] [comments]

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