Silver traded at $68.91 per ounce on Thursday, June 18, 2026, up 1.5% on the day and back above the 200 EMA it had broken just one week earlier. The reclaim reverses the bearish signal that defined my last analysis and drops price back inside the $66 to $89 consolidation that has framed the white metal since February.

Wednesday’s near 3% drop, triggered by a hawkish Federal Reserve, found a floor almost exactly at the moving average that matters most.

The setup now is simple. Silver sits at the bottom of a range it has refused to leave for four months, and the next directional clue is the 50 EMA at $74. Until that level breaks, very little has changed on the chart since February.

Follow me on X for real-time silver market analysis: @ChmielDk

Silver Technical Analysis: The $74 Gate

A week ago I wrote that silver had broken below its 200 EMA and warned how low that could take it, in my analysis of the 200 EMA breakdown. The chart has since flipped. Price has climbed back above that average, and the consolidation between $66 support and $89 resistance is live again.

The $66 to $68 support zone coincides almost to the dollar with the 200 EMA, and that confluence is what stopped Wednesday’s selloff. The upper boundary near $89 traces the local highs from early February, a level last tested in the first half of May, which is what triggered the most recent leg down.

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This is the same range I mapped when silver crashed to the $70 floor for the third time in March. In 15+ years trading and analyzing metals at FinanceMagnates.com, 10 of them spent covering silver’s every major break, a 200 EMA reclaim this fast after a breakdown is rare, and you can read more of my metals work on my analyst page.

Silver is trying to bounce, but the move higher has a ceiling: the 50 EMA sits near $74, a meaningful distance above spot. That is the gate. The swing-trading principle for range-bound markets is direct. As long as price holds between two boundaries, it tends to travel from one to the other, so the path to $89 stays open while $66 holds.

From current levels, the upside to the top of the channel is roughly 30%. My Fibonacci extension, stretched across the prior trend, puts the 100% level just above the $89 boundary, which reinforces a target aligned with the dominant trend. I do not rule that scenario out, but I want to see $74 taken first.

Key levels:

A close back below $66 reopens the $62 March low and turns the chart bearish again. A daily close above $74 is the trigger I am watching for the move toward $89.

Why Is Silver Recovering?

Silver climbed above $69 on Thursday after the US dollar retreated from the spike that followed Wednesday’s Fed decision. President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the oil-driven inflation premium that has weighed on metals all year.

Lower crude takes pressure off Treasury yields, and softer yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver.

The cap on the rebound is monetary policy. Silver tumbled about 3% on Wednesday after the Fed signaled growing support for rate hikes this year, with half of FOMC members projecting that a hike may be needed.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to guide on the next move but stressed that inflation has run above the 2% target for years. That hawkish tilt is why silver bounced off support rather than ripping through resistance.

The drivers behind the current move:

Dollar pullback: The US Dollar Index eased off its post-Fed spike, the direct trigger for Thursday’s bounce. Hormuz reopening: The US-Iran interim deal pulled oil lower, easing the inflation channel that suppressed metals. Hawkish Fed cap: Half of FOMC members flagged a possible 2026 hike, keeping yields elevated and limiting upside. Industrial demand floor: Data-center and AI infrastructure buildouts continue to underpin physical silver demand.

How High Can Silver Go? What Traders on X Are Watching

Sentiment among chart-focused traders on X leans cautiously bullish, with the $66 zone treated as the line in the sand.

“My view remains bullish while price stays above $60,” said Jess, the trader behind @JessXAUUSD, who flagged $71 as the breakout trigger toward $77. That aligns with my own read: $66 holding keeps the bullish structure intact, though I put the real gate higher, at the $74 50 EMA.

Kamile Uray (@remdocan) sees the same $66 support holding and points to $77 and $89 as the resistances above a $71 break. The clustering around $89 from independent analysts is notable, since it matches the top of my consolidation channel exactly.

The most aggressive target comes from Dr. Potassium (@potassium_phd), who wrote that silver’s “next target is $96.01, likely sometime in June,” conditional on the October 2025 trendline holding as support. That sits well above my channel, and I would need a clean $89 break to entertain it.

Not everyone is positioned for a breakout. “Silver is entering a multi-month sideways consolidation between $60 and $75,” said Damodara Rao (@damodara_SEBIRA), arguing selling momentum is drying up while the market builds a base. That range-bound thesis is closest to what my chart has shown since February.

Janey (@Janey_Analyst) framed an intraday long setup off the $67.65 area with short-term targets up to $70.15, a near-term echo of the broader bullish-while-above-support structure.

Silver Price Predictions

The forecast range for silver remains extraordinarily wide, and the spread between X traders and institutions tells the story. Back in April I laid out the full institutional case from BofA, Citi and Reuters as COMEX inventory tightened. My own structure says the question is binary: hold $66 and grind toward $89, or lose it and revisit $62.

My view on each: Damodara Rao’s $60-$75 base is the scenario my chart most supports, since silver has refused to leave this range since February. Jess and Uray’s $77 is realistic but only after the $74 50 EMA falls, which neither flags explicitly. Dr. Potassium’s $96 requires breaking $89 first, a level that has capped every rally this year.

Citi’s $150 call was made in January near the $120 highs and looks stretched against current action. HSBC’s $68.25 average is almost exactly where silver trades today, which makes it the most credible institutional anchor on the board.

FAQ, Silver Price Analysis

How high can silver go in 2026?

My chart puts the immediate ceiling at $89, the top of the consolidation that has held since February, roughly 30% above the $68.91 price on June 18. A daily close above the $74 50 EMA is the trigger for that move. Independent X traders target $77 to $96, while Citigroup’s January call of $150 looks stretched against current action.

What is the key level for silver right now?

The 50 EMA at $74 is the gate. Silver reclaimed its 200 EMA near $66 to $68 this week, putting price back inside its range, but upside stays capped until $74 breaks on a closing basis. Below, the $66 confluence floor is the line that keeps the bullish structure intact.

Why did silver fall this week?

Silver dropped about 3% on Wednesday, June 17, after the Federal Reserve signaled growing support for rate hikes in 2026, with half of FOMC members projecting a hike may be needed. The hawkish tilt lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, both headwinds for non-yielding silver, before a US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz sparked Thursday’s bounce.

What is silver’s support level?

The $66 to $68 zone is critical support, coinciding almost exactly with the 200 EMA, and it held on Wednesday’s selloff. A daily close below it reopens the $62 March swing low as the next downside target. As long as $66 holds, the four-month consolidation between $66 and $89 stays intact.

Is silver a buy at current levels?

This is not investment advice. Technically, silver sits at the bottom of its range, which is where range traders look for long setups toward the $89 boundary, provided $66 holds. The risk is a hawkish Fed forcing a close below support, which would flip the chart bearish toward $62. Position sizing matters given silver’s volatility.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More

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