I track a macro scoring model for BTC that weighs stuff like ETF flows, real yields, dollar strength, hashrate trends, and fed rate expectations. Right now it’s sitting at 38/100 which is firmly bearish. The big thing that stands out is ETF flows — we just saw $620M in net outflows which is pretty massive institutional selling pressure. On top of that hashrate dropped nearly 14% which usually means miners are capitulating or at least pulling back. The fed expectations component is also negative, market’s basically pricing in that any rally from here is overcooked relative to rate path. So fundamentally there’s not a lot of reason to be long right now imo.

The daily chart agrees — we’re in a confirmed downtrend and the indicator just validated a new lower low, so structurally we’re early in a fresh leg down. Daily continuation rate is at 70.6% which historically means the trend has more room to run.

On the 15m I got my entry after price swept above the local high around 81,350 and then got smacked right back down into a 90m supply zone. Classic liquidity grab — run the stops above the high then reverse hard. I’m short from 80,334 with my stop at 81,494 above that supply zone. The continuation rate on this timeframe is 71.3% and we’re on streak 1, so statistically there’s probably a couple more legs in this move. What I like about this setup is the retest probability is at 75.9% and when price does come back to retest, about 63% of the time it bounces and makes a new low — so the odds are tilted pretty clearly.

For targets I’m splitting into three — taking 50% off at 79,170 which is the conservative 1.59x extension, then 30% at 77,959 (2.04x) if momentum keeps pushing, and letting the last 20% ride down to 76,434 which lines up almost perfectly with a 90m demand zone sitting around 75,800-76,300. That 3.35x extension is ambitious but given the macro backdrop and the daily structure I think it’s worth letting a runner breathe on this one. We’ll see how it plays out but honestly this is one of the cleaner alignments I’ve seen in a while — macro, daily structure, and the intraday entry all saying the same thing.

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