Bitcoin’s cycles have been lowering in intensity, and the price action has been a curve, not a straight line.
Even the Rainbow Chart has been too optimistic and hasn’t been curving properly to the reality:
You can already see that as the price is starting to settle lower than expected.
They had to add a color to make the chart fit.
We saw in the bear market in 2022, the bottom hit $15K, below the $19K ATH of 2017. A first for a cycle.
How soon will we see the first bull cycle peak lower than a previous cycle’s peak?Returns of bull cycles have been vastly diminishing:
Cycle BTC returns (approximate) Peak (approximate) 2011 41771x $32 2013 621x $1,175 2017 130.5x $19,600 2021 22.1x $69,000 2025 8.2x $126,000Given the average rate, √0.169×0.371≈√0.0627≈0.25
If the diminishing return continue at roughly the same ratio, the next return should fall roughly around 2.05.
Essentially 2x.
Volatility could boost the ratio higher, if it doesn’t slow down and is driven back for any number of reasons. But in a best case scenario, we’d still be looking at roughly 4.0 returns from the previous 8.2x.
What are the potential peaks for the 2029 bull cycle:
If 2026 bear cycle bottom stops at bull cycle peak at ~2.0 ratio (current ratio) bull cycle peak at ~4.0 ratio (high volatility ratio) $60K ~$110-130K ~$230-250K $50K ~$90-110K ~$190-210K $40K ~$70-90K ~150-170K $30K ~$50-70K ~110-130kThese are rough estimates and simplified for illustration purposes.
There are many other elements affecting the market that can change the price.
Conclusion:If the cycles continue at the same current ratio, same diminishing returns, then there is a high likelihood of 2029 having a lower peak, and be just shy of a new ATH.
If volatility kicks off higher again, and reverses the tapering for some reason, then we will be able to see higher peaks.
Cycles peak have been highly dependent on volatility, and that volatility has been slowing. It would take a lot to reverse that trend.
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