On March 10, 2026, Times of Israel correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported that a single Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area near Beit Shemesh. No injuries. Routine war update. Until it became the center of a $14M+ market on whether “Iran strikes Israel” that day.

Polymarket’s rules are specific: intercepted missiles don’t count as a “Yes.” Bettors who went heavy on “No” needed his story changed from “missile hit” to “intercepted fragments.” They didn’t ask nicely.

It started with emails. Then Discord. Then, fabricated screenshots of a fake message from Fabian himself claiming IDF confirmed interception. Completely made up, circulated to manipulate resolution.

Then at midnight, someone WhatsApp’d him with a countdown.

“After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than that to finish you.” “86 minutes left. You are the only one responsible for your life.” “There are people who don’t care about the law, and you’re going to make them lose 50x what you’ll ever earn.”

Someone posed as a female lawyer named “Vered,” called him, sounded like a young man, claimed a US company hired her to investigate his “market manipulation.”

https://preview.redd.it/081bykouzfpg1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd06ab3f88f7754e9d397faa06550d81fdb9f62d

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2033590163041906931

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