Mining is, from what I’ve read today (I haven’t read a thing about crypto/blockchain in 4 years) barely profitable. Mining 1 BTC costs 70k$ and the market price is 80k$, very roughly.

Assuming that this trend continues for a while in the future, and the margins are narrowing down even more, the less miners will want to invest in dedicated rigs. And so at some point miners will not even bother replacing their rigs once they break down / are outdated. Meaning, that the totale hashrate of the network will decrease, and so the Difficulty… until an equilibrium point is reached .

What this equilibrium point could be? what mining rigs would look like? it depends on the profitability of mining , so…

scenario A) if the profitability was razor thin, the least amount of investment is what makes sense. Therefore, only spare computational power on your and mine laptops /desktops computers is used. That is, the only cost to mine is electricity. No additional cost for hardware of any kind, no overheads, nothing.

scenario B) for some reason, BTC price is so that profitability is low but not that low -> mining equipment is still determined by profitability -> dedicated mining rigs may still make sense, but perhaps not so much so that you want to lease a warehouse, employ people, install water cooling systems…

scenario C) BTC price keeps climbing and profitability is high. Economy of scale makes sense and so mining companies are thriving.

Am I making sense? What do you think? eventually, BTC/USD still is a key factor obviously. In the scenario that USD had collapsed for XYZ reason or that BTC or any other crypto took its place as everyday currency SHOULD be taken into consideration but not in this post.

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