Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that most altcoins will go to 0, and to pay attention to an altcoin’s Bitcoin pair.
So, I wanted to isolate altcoins that have been trending upward on their Bitcoin pairs. I did this by writing a custom Python script to calculate the best-fitting quantile of each altcoin’s Bitcoin pair on a log-linear scale. It does this by fitting thousands of quantiles from 0 to 1 on the Bitcoin prices for about 100 different altcoins (altcoin price data is gathered from CoinMetrics and Yahoo Finance) and selecting the best quantile along with the log slope of that quantile based on the quantile that has the most residuals clustered around 0 (this is very computationally expensive and needs to be parallelized in order to not take forever to execute, but generates the most accurate possible fit). I used quantile regression here instead of linear regression because Crypto data tends to be very skewed and linear regression is horrible at fitting data with skewed distributions. Note that any requests asking me to share the code for this script will be ignored.
Here are the results of the script. A higher log slope indicates that the altcoin is trending up faster on its Bitcoin pair (i.e. it is gaining value against Bitcoin faster). There are only 7 altcoins that have been trending up on their Bitcoin pairs according to the slope of their best-fitting quantile (on a log-linear scale). All other altcoins have have either a 0 or negative slope for their best-fitting quantile (i.e. they are trending down against Bitcoin). Make of this analysis what you will, this is not financial advice.
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