There’s a lot of talk of the ISM Manufacturing PMI essentially measuring the Business Cycle, and the Business Cycle’s correlation to Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle. The main concept circulating is that the Business Cycle is the reason that the 4 year Bitcoin Cycle is dead.
The ISM PMI measures the overall health of the Manufacturing Sector (expansion or contraction)
More specifically it measures New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries and Inventories
PMI Peaks often align with Business Cycle peaks, so it is often a leading indicator of the Business Cycle itself.
Above 50 shows Expansion Below 50 shows Contraction
It’s been in Contraction since 2022 / 2023.
With 20% of the Data measuring Employment, My only concern is that Manufacturing Employment is likely to be impacted by the advancements being made in AI / Robotics.
If it gets back above 50 (better yet 55) we can expect explosive growth for Bitcoin and the broader Cryptocurrency market as a whole. Until then $BTC is likely at the mercy of the ISM PMI.
I posted about this on X on the 4th and the next day, January 5th, 2026 a 60 Minutes Posts about Boston Dynamics Atlas is sending FLEETS to Hyundai and Google lol.
I wanted to get everyone’s opinion on this because I don’t see anyone discussing it and I feel like it’s kind of important if we’re going to try to use the ISM PMI as an excuse as to why we haven’t had a proper blow-off-top Euphoric Bull Run like the ones we’re familiar with.
submitted by /u/jpjacques1993 [link] [comments]
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