Not a doompost, just longform thoughts on the market. I’m not selling, but disclosure: I personally moved ~20% to stables in October since I’m unemployed (laid off) and need a safety net.

This (attached) $BTC chart still gives me pause. My old hand-drawn log trend clearly shows the major resistance over the past year. That said, since this is a wholly unprecedented and likely extended cycle, historic trends aren’t gospel. Assuming an extended cycle:

Potential short-term Bearish scenario: A .236 fib (~$77k) retest fits mid-bull behavior. Below that, we’re probably in a bear. I don’t think we drop that far yet, but there’s heavy uncertainty and I can’t rule it out.

Less bearish (bullish) case (I’m leaning towards this): We had momentum before 10/10’s liquidation. It will take time to recover, but downside doesn’t have to be as deep as the .236. In that case, more bullish support levels include: $107k, $100k–$102k, $93k, $81k.

What to watch: ~Trump easing tariff pressure (mostly China) ~AI/equities maintaining bullish momentum ~Continued Fed easing

If those happen, we likely see a massive rally, including top alts, on the back of lower rates, QE, and the everything bubble. If not, and BTC breaks below .236, expect $50k–$60k BTC range as the new floor, and alts following it down.

What about Ethereum? I’m heavier in $ETH, expecting rotation. Economic uncertainty (tariffs, shutdown) is delaying risk-on flows, but that changes if conditions improve and the Fed truly eases. Powell’s downplaying it, but I think they will continue cutting too.

Watch BTC dominance- it’s still trending down despite a bounce after 10/10. It needs to continue dropping while not absolutely tanking the larger crypto market. With Tom Lee and other Ether advocates pushing the narrative and major Ethereum updates ahead in a post regulatory climate, it’s still my favorite alt for the risk-on rotation.

Ether’s log trend suggests a top around $7k–$8k in a bullish continuation, and much higher long term.

In a bear, downside likely starts at $3300, then $2100, with worst case around $1500. Institutional holders will cushion the fall, but some will still fold.

submitted by /u/1_BigPapi [link] [comments]

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