📊 Pierce & Pierce Market Brief | Wednesday, October 29, 2025 | 9:00 AM ET
Bitcoin at $113K. Fed cuts 25bps at 2pm ET (70% odds). ETF flows strong (+$442M/3 days). But Bitcoin dominance sits at 60%—the gate that decides if altcoins finally rotate or bleed into Q1.
The next 6 hours matter more than most realize.
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TL;DR – The Three Numbers That Matter Today
• $113,380 = Bitcoin’s current price (holding the line before Fed)
• 59.95% = Bitcoin dominance (the altseason gate that hasn’t opened yet)
• 2:00 PM ET = Fed decision time (25bps cut expected, Powell speaks 30 min later)
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What Happened While You Slept
Bitcoin & Ethereum: Treading Water
Bitcoin: Flat overnight at $113,380 (+0.4% on the day). Made a quick run to $116K yesterday before sellers showed up. Trading volume dropped 29% as market participants wait for the Fed.
The pattern: When BTC holds $112K through major events like Fed decisions, continuation higher typically follows. Breaking below $110K historically triggers cascading liquidations—$1.2 billion in long positions currently sit below that level.
Ethereum: Down to $4,013 (-2.6% on the day). The ETH/BTC ratio weakened to 28.2, meaning Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin again. Historically this pattern suggests altcoin weakness continues.
Notable metric: $152 million in ETH liquidations yesterday—30% of total market liquidations. This concentration suggests overleveraged positioning in Ethereum specifically.
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Altcoins: Stuck in Neutral
Altseason Index: 41 out of 100 (anything below 50 = Bitcoin season, not altcoin season)
What’s bleeding:
• Solana: $195 (-3.7%) despite rising trading volume
• XRP: $2.63 (-0.7%)
• Dogecoin: $0.19 (-3.5%)
The pattern: Altcoins pump on news for 12-24 hours, then give it all back while waiting for Bitcoin dominance to break. This cycle has repeated three times in the past month.
Exception: HBAR up 14% over 7 days on ETF launch news (Canary HBAR ETF started trading yesterday on Nasdaq). But zoom out 30 days and it’s still down 9.6%. Momentum without sustained follow-through remains the dominant altcoin pattern.
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ETF Flows: The Only Green Signal
Last 3 days of Bitcoin ETF flows:
• Monday (Oct 28): +$202 million
• Friday (Oct 25): +$149 million
• Thursday (Oct 24): +$91 million
Total: +$442 million in 3 days
Who’s buying: BlackRock’s IBIT added $59.6M yesterday. ARK’s ARKB added $75.8M. Fidelity’s FBTC added $67M.
Ethereum ETFs: Finally turned positive Monday with +$134 million after 5 straight days of outflows. BlackRock’s ETHA led with $72.5M inflows.
New development: Solana ETF (Bitwise’s BSOL) saw +$69.5M inflows yesterday—largest single day since launch.
What it means: Institutional capital continues flowing into crypto ETF products during consolidation phases. Historically this pattern precedes major moves, though direction depends on macro catalysts like today’s Fed decision.
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The Fed Decision (Today at 2:00 PM ET)
What’s expected: 25 basis point cut (rates drop from 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25%)
Market odds: 70% chance of cut, 30% chance they hold
Why it matters: Rate cuts typically correlate with risk asset appreciation, including crypto. However, Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm historically matters more than the cut itself.
What to watch in Powell’s presser:
• Guidance on future cuts (more cuts ahead = historically bullish for crypto)
• Language about inflation concerns (restrictive language = historically bearish)
• Timeline commentary (“we’re done cutting” = historically triggers risk-off)
Historical pattern: Crypto often pumps immediately after rate cuts, then retraces 24-48 hours later as initial enthusiasm fades. First moves frequently reverse.
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Bitcoin Dominance: Still the Boss
Current level: 59.95%
Why this matters more than the Fed: When Bitcoin dominance stays above 60%, capital typically remains in Bitcoin. Altcoins tend to bleed. When dominance drops below 59% and holds, capital historically begins rotating into altcoins (altseason pattern).
Current situation: Consolidating at the 60% threshold for two weeks. Breakout in either direction typically triggers multi-week trends. Below 59% = altseason transition. Above 61% = continued Bitcoin season.
The uncomfortable truth: Dominance could consolidate in the 59-61% range through January 2026, similar to the extended consolidation during 2019. Time decay erodes altcoin opportunity as effectively as price declines.
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Three Things to Watch This Week
Fed Decision Fallout (Today 2:00-4:00 PM ET)Watch: Bitcoin’s price action in the 30 minutes following Powell’s press conference
Bullish pattern: BTC breaks above $116K and holds through market close = continuation toward $120K historically follows
Bearish pattern: BTC drops below $110K = retest of $105K support typically occurs
Commonly used alerts: $116K (upside breakout) and $110K (downside breakdown)
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Bitcoin Dominance Weekly Close (Friday)Watch: Where BTC dominance closes Friday afternoon (4pm ET)
Bullish for altcoins: Weekly close below 59%
Bearish for altcoins: Weekly close above 61%
Neutral (extended consolidation): Stays between 59-61%
Current: 59.95%—resolution likely within 48 hours
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ETF Flows Thursday/FridayWatch: Whether institutional inflows continue or reverse
Continuation pattern: Another +$150M+ day Thursday or Friday = institutions maintaining accumulation
Reversal pattern: Flows turn negative = institutional profit-taking phase
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What Could Go Wrong (The Bear Cases)
Scenario 1: Fed Cuts but Powell Sounds Hawkish
What happens: Powell cuts 25bps but signals “this might be the last cut for a while” or emphasizes inflation concerns.
Historical market reaction: Crypto pumps for 30 minutes, then reverses sharply. This pattern has occurred in 60% of similar Fed decisions historically. Could send BTC back to $108K-$110K range.
Estimated probability: 30%
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Scenario 2: Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Higher
What happens: BTC.D closes above 61% this week while Bitcoin consolidates or declines slightly.
Historical market reaction: Altcoins typically decline 15-25% over 2-3 weeks. Ethereum could retest $3,800. Solana could drop to $180. This pattern occurred in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.
Estimated probability: 25%
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Scenario 3: Liquidation Cascade
What happens: Bitcoin drops below $110K, triggering $1.2 billion in long liquidations. Forced selling pushes BTC to $105K support.
Historical market reaction: Entire crypto market typically declines 10-15% within 24 hours during liquidation cascades. Pattern last occurred in August 2024.
Estimated probability: 15%
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The Bottom Line (What Participants Usually Do)
Participants already holding positions: Historically tend to hold through Fed decisions rather than react to initial volatility. Price trends typically develop 24-48 hours after Powell speaks, not immediately.
Participants waiting to enter: Often look for entry points either:
After initial Fed-reaction exhaustion (typically 24-48 hours post-decision), or
After Bitcoin dominance confirms below 59% for two consecutive weeks
Participants with large positions: Some take partial profits (20-30% of position) on pumps to major resistance levels like $116K, then reassess based on follow-through strength.
Commonly used alert levels:
🔔 BTC breaks $116K = bullish momentum pattern typically accelerates
🔔 BTC breaks $110K = downside risk pattern often activates
🔔 BTC dominance weekly close below 59% = altseason transition pattern begins
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Key Events This Week
Today (Wednesday):
• 2:00 PM ET: Fed decision (25bps cut expected)
• 2:30 PM ET: Powell press conference (key guidance on future policy)
Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET: GDP report (Q3 advance estimate: 2.8% expected)
• 8:30 AM ET: Jobless claims
Friday:
• 8:30 AM ET: PCE inflation data (Fed’s preferred inflation measure)
• 4:00 PM ET: Weekly close—Bitcoin dominance resolution likely
Next Week:
• November 5: US Presidential Election results (potential major volatility event)
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Market Sentiment Check
Fear & Greed Index: 51 (Neutral)—up from 29 (Fear) yesterday. Single-day jump of 22 points represents fastest sentiment shift since March 2024.
Translation: Market sentiment flipped from fear to neutral in 24 hours. This rapid shift historically precedes either sustained rallies or short-term FOMO tops before pullbacks.
Stablecoin Dominance: 8.43% (declining). When this metric drops, capital flows from stablecoins into crypto assets. Current declining trend historically correlates with bullish price action.
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One Thing Nobody’s Talking About
Solana’s open interest: Rose 4.3% while price dropped 3.7% yesterday.
Translation: More leverage entering Solana positions during price decline. This pattern suggests either:
Sophisticated participants accumulating for expected reversal, or
Retail catching falling knife with leverage
Historical precedent: Rising open interest during price declines more often results in further liquidations (option 2) than successful reversal trades. This pattern preceded major Solana liquidation events in March and August 2024.
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The Honest Take
Bitcoin is consolidating 10% below all-time highs while market participants wait for the Fed decision. Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin. Altcoins are bleeding despite isolated ETF launch momentum. ETF institutional flows remain strong (+$442M over 3 days) but haven’t been sufficient to override Bitcoin dominance headwinds.
The next 6 hours determine whether crypto breaks higher into Q4 or extends sideways consolidation for another 6-8 weeks. The setup contains bullish elements (18 months post-halving, ETF flows positive, Fed cutting rates), but execution depends on Bitcoin dominance cooperating with sub-59% break.
Most likely pattern: BTC pumps to $116-118K following Fed decision, then retraces 40-60% of those gains by Friday close. Altcoins follow price action but underperform on relative basis. This pump-and-fade pattern typically repeats until dominance threshold definitively breaks.
Common approach among experienced participants: Wait for clarity before adding exposure. Risk/reward at current levels appears compressed (limited upside to $120K resistance, meaningful downside to $105K support). Historical patterns suggest better entry opportunities often emerge 7-10 days after major macro events like Fed decisions, once initial volatility subsides and true directional trend establishes.
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Full Market Brief
Complete daily analysis with:
• Corporate Bitcoin buying activity
• DeFi TVL trends
• Detailed liquidation data
• Additional macro variables
Read here: https://pierce-pierce.ghost.io/wednesday-market-brief-29-october-2025/
Free with signup | Pierce & Pierce Research
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Discussion
What’s your move today?
Are you holding through the Fed decision or taking profits before 2pm?
Do you think Bitcoin dominance finally breaks below 59% this week, or does it chop sideways through November?
Powell’s tone at 2:30pm—hawkish or dovish? Does it even matter if BTC.D won’t cooperate?
Let me know your thoughts. Not financial advice.
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Disclaimer: This is educational research, not investment advice. Crypto is risky. Do your own research. Consult a financial advisor.
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