Playtech now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA above €300 million, the gambling software supplier said today (Tuesday). Trading from July through October ran ahead of expectations on demand in the Americas, the company said.
The new figure tops the €279 million average of seven analysts Playtech tracks, whose estimates ran from €271 million to €285 million.
The same analysts expect €266 million for 2027. Playtech said that year will carry Brazil’s betting shutdown, higher UK gambling duty and new US competition.
Two of those markets are places where retail brokers have started selling betting-style products. Brazil treats prediction markets as betting, and IG Group has applied to the UK Gambling Commission for a betting license to run them.
London’s trading industry is coming home!
Playtech itself left broking in July 2022, when it completed the $250 million sale of CFD and FX broker Finalto to Gopher Investments.
Brazil Shut Betting Months After Blocking Event Contracts
Playtech said it can absorb three months of the Brazilian hit in 2026 but expects a more significant impact in 2027 if the shutdown is not lifted. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure 1,394 on September 25, banning fixed-odds sports betting and online casino games.
Licensed sites went offline on October 6, and banks and payment institutions may no longer process betting transactions. Congress has 120 days to turn the measure into law.
The ban reached a market that event-contract platforms had already lost. In April, Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) issued Resolution 5,298, banning derivatives tied to sporting, political, cultural and entertainment events, including contracts traded abroad and offered to Brazilians.
Telecom regulator Anatel then blocked 27 prediction-market platforms, among them Kalshi, which had named Brazil as an expansion target in December.
Economic data is missing from the CMN list. That is the category of contracts Kalshi agreed in March to distribute through local broker XP Inc.
Brazil still leads Latin American interest in retail trading. It drew 3.3 million organic visits to retail FX and CFD broker websites in the third quarter, about 46% of the region’s 7.1 million, FM Intelligence’s heat map shows. Visits from Brazil fell 31.6% from the second quarter.
New US Suppliers Arrive for the Hard Rock Product
In the US, Playtech said being first to market with Hard Rock Digital on a product built on past motor racing results lifted first-half revenue materially, and that revenue held up in the second half.
Chief Executive Mor Weizer said US performance “has remained strong, contributing significantly to profitability and cash flow.”
Other suppliers are now bringing the same type of product to market, which Playtech expects to cut its wallet share more materially into 2027. Weizer also said Mexico and Colombia benefited after the men’s FIFA World Cup.
Playtech is a pure supplier after agreeing in September 2024 to sell its Italian retail arm Snaitech to Flutter for €2.3 billion. Snaitech had generated 55.4% of Playtech’s revenue in 2023.
UK Online Casino Duty Rises to 40%
The UK tax changes split gambling from the betting products brokers sell. Remote Gaming Duty on online casino games rose to 40% from 21% on April 1, and Playtech said 2027 will bring the first full year of that increase, alongside higher gambling taxes in other European markets.
A new 25% General Betting Duty rate on remote betting follows in April 2027. Financial spread bets, which IG and CMC Markets sell to UK clients, stayed at 3% under the same package, against 40% for online casino games.
IG, which agreed in July to buy US prediction-market operator Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, plans to open UK markets on sports and politics in early 2027, pending its betting license.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.FinTechRead More
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