Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.1% to $83,579 on Binance by 10:07 UTC today (Tuesday), after buyers again defended support near $81,000. The rebound follows two Wall Street upgrades this month, which reversed earlier cuts to bitcoin forecasts.

Citigroup lifted its 12-month target to $113,000 from $82,000, and TD Cowen raised its year-end 2026 projection to about $109,000 from $97,500. Both sit 30% to 35% above today’s price.

My daily chart shows why the $81,000 area matters. It held on a closing basis on October 8, and buyers stepped in again today after an intraday dip to $81,034.

London’s trading industry is coming home!

Why Are Banks Raising Bitcoin Price Targets?

Citi tied its upgrade to returning flows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a weaker dollar and the US Treasury’s buyback of longer-dated bonds. The bank expects about $5 billion of inflows into crypto investment products over the next year.

Citi started 2026 with a $143,000 target, then cut it to $112,000 in March and $82,000 in July, according to Decrypt. Even after the upgrade, its target sits about 10% below the record near $126,200 set in October 2025.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza raised the year-end projection on October 8, after bitcoin finished the third quarter above the firm’s $76,235 assumption, investingLive reported.

The firm had cut its 2026 call to $97,500 on September 2, when bitcoin traded near $78,000. It now sees about $132,750 at the end of 2027 and $280,000 in 2029.

What Is the Next Resistance for Bitcoin?

On my daily chart, BTC is testing the lower edge of local support at $81,355, set by the May highs. The late-August and early-September highs formed in the same zone, so for several months it worked as a ceiling.

Bitcoin broke out of the range that ran from that ceiling down to the July low near $58,000 in September, a move I covered in my September 22 bitcoin analysis. The old ceiling is now being retested as a floor.

The first resistance is $87,100, which turned the price back in late September and again at the start of October. In my October 5 analysis, I named it as the hurdle before six figures.

A move above $87,100 would put the January 14 high at $97,285 back in view, with the $100,000 round number right behind it. From today’s price, $100,000 is about 20% higher. Measured from the $81,355 support, the distance is 23%.

The moving averages back the upside case. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), now at $80,259, has crossed above the 200-day EMA at $75,610, which I read as a buy signal.

For now, BTC is stuck in a tight range, and the coming weeks should settle the direction. I stay on the bullish side and see dips as buying opportunities as long as the price holds the 200-day EMA near $75,600.

What Could Stop Bitcoin From Rising?

The bank calls rely on ETF money coming back, and last week it did the opposite. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $678.9 million of outflows, their largest weekly withdrawal since June, according to the weekly Bitfinex Alpha report.

Bitfinex analysts put the average cost of ETF holdings at about $84,340, just above today’s price. They expect holders who are near breakeven to sell into a rebound.

“With price now slightly below it, a rally towards $84,340 gives these investors the opportunity to sell without a loss. We expect this to cap price until inflows resume,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote.

The next test comes tomorrow (Wednesday), when the US publishes September consumer price data. Bitfinex expects BTC to stay between $81,300 and $84,500 before the release and said a hotter reading would raise the odds of another Federal Reserve hike in October.

Rising yields already hit the market last week, when crypto liquidations topped $400 million in an hour. Persistent inflation and more ETF withdrawals could expose BTC to a drop toward $77,400, Bitfinex said.

For my scenario, the level that matters is $81,355. A daily close below it would send BTC toward the 50-day EMA near $80,300, and a break of the 200-day EMA near $75,600 would cancel the bullish case.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.TrendingRead More

You might also be interested in reading ‘Kids screaming in sheer terror’ after van packed with fireworks set alight.