I know everyone is looking at that giant green BTC candle and screaming bullish breakout, but I don’t think this move is nearly as bullish as it looks.

BTC went from around 77k to 81k+ basically straight up, just to stop dead under the same 82k resistance we’ve already been fighting.

Around $178M in BTC shorts got liquidated compared to only around $8M in longs. Thats like 21:1.

Futures OI jumped from around $51.2B to $56.4B in ONE DAY. Over 10%.

During one of the biggest hours around $171M got liquidated and something like 95% of it was shorts.

Large Binance perp trades also showed around $5.71B in aggressive buying vs $5.15B selling.

But here’s what I find interesting. Coinbase premium was NEGATIVE, around -9.5bps.

So if this was massive organic US spot demand, why wasn’t Coinbase leading?

Look at the actual move. BTC hits 78k and shorts start getting liquidated. It pushes into 79k and more shorts get liquidated. Same thing happens through 80k and again into 81-82k.

Then it gets right underneath resistance and volume basically dies.

That looks a hell of alot more like a squeeze to me than everyone suddenly deciding BTC is worth 6%.

Someone doesn’t need enough money to buy BTC from 77k all the way to 81k either. They just need enough aggressive buying to get the move started.

Once price starts running through liquidation levels, shorts become forced buyers and basically help push price higher against themselves.

I’m not claiming I can prove somebody manipulated it because I can’t.

Buy why didn’t it keep going? Why did it stop directly under 82k? (Resistance)

I definitely don’t buy the idea that one giant green candle automatically means BTC suddenly became insanely bullish.

If this is real accumulation I want to see actual spot demand take over. Coinbase premium should improve, volume should come back and BTC should actually ACCEPT above 82-85k instead of running directly into resistance and stopping.

Until that happens I’m skeptical as hell of this move.

I want BTC to break out just as much as the next person, this is my space and I’m heavily invested, but when I see moves like this my alarm bells start ringing.

ESPECIALLY around the 4 year cycle low that still proving to be alive.

Anyone else have something to add that seems interesting about how this move seemingly came out of no where and dried up just as fast as it appeared?

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