I keep seeing people say AI could “break Bitcoin,” but I think that phrase is doing a lot of work.

Liron Shapira recently argued there’s a serious chance BTC could drop 50%+ within the next two years if AI weakens the security assumptions people have about it. Vitalik pushed back and made a distinction I think is worth discussing: some problems at the client or network layer could potentially be fixed with upgrades, while actually breaking SHA-256 or proof-of-work would be a much bigger problem. He basically said the odds of that second scenario are extremely low.

That doesn’t mean there is zero risk. The transition to stronger cryptography could still be messy, especially if new security research moves faster than expected. But “AI finds bugs” and “AI breaks Bitcoin’s core cryptography” are very different claims.

I’m not trying to predict a crash here. I’m more curious about how people separate realistic security risks from headline-level fear.

At what point would AI or quantum-security risk become something you’d seriously factor into a long-term Bitcoin position?

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