On-chain metrics are useful context, not standalone signals. A practical checklist:

• Define the metric precisely (active addresses, exchange balances, realized cap, etc.) and its time window. • Compare with historical ranges and similar market conditions rather than a single snapshot. • Check whether changes reflect genuine user activity or contract transfers, exchange reshuffling, or batching. • Pair on-chain data with market structure and macro context, and write down what would falsify your interpretation.

The key lesson is uncertainty: metrics can describe behavior, but they rarely prove intent or predict price on their own. What checks help you avoid overreading a chart?

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