As of today, BTC is having its strongest August since 2017, here is some broader context for what we are seeing now and what this trend might mean:

[1] July 31 Close was ~$63k. [2] This year’s “August High” is ~$81.2k (8-25-26). [3] Month to date we are up over +25% which breaks a 4 year streak of red Augusts (2022–2025)

I’ve said before, this doesn’t read like a “dead cat bounce”, BTC chopped for months after the June low and we’ve been either ranging or heading down since the 10-10 leverage wipeout.

This is a real move that has [1] Volume [2] Billions in shorts covering [3] Strong BTC ETF inflows [4] (This is the kicker) a real macro catalyst in the form of Treasury intervention. Re: point [4] Treasury intends to double their liquidity support buybacks of long dated coupons, from $2B to (at least) $4B starting Sept 9 through early November.

TL/DR: “When Treasury buys long dated, less liquid coupons and funds the cash outflow by issuing more bills, then the Fed buys bills in the secondary market and then creates reserves to maintain reserve levels? That’s QE with more steps”.

Here are some macro | market positives that we have going for us:

[1] Weaker Dollar | Fiscal Stress [2] Shorts are trying to avoid a squeeze. [3] Heavy Spot and ETF Flows [4] Gold | Silver moving (Different assets, same story) [5] **Small** “Rotation” from A.I. to BTC (VERY skeptical on this one)

Now… onto the month of August and some historical parallels; these are the last times BTC was green in August:

[1] 2013: +31% (Followed by a November blow off top) [2] 2017: +65% (Followed by December ATH) [3] 2020: +3% (Followed by a big Q4 rally) [4] 2021: +14% (Followed by a local top in November)

However, none of these years had the macro | market positives mentioned above; but please note that in all cases where BTC had a green August, September was red.

What does this mean?

I think the macro | market positives from 1-4 above are real, with 5 being a mitigating variable. With the confluence of factors that we have, a small amount of capital “rotating” from A.I. | Semis | Memory into BTC can tip the scale just enough at the margins to catch shorts off-sides and push us into a new higher range.

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