After this weekend’s positive momentum and potential breakout from the bear market, it got me thinking about whether the 4 year cycle is still intact.

I certainly don’t feel like we had a normal bull run last cycle. The speculative fervour was extremely isolated to niche pockets of the market.

We also had more and more institutional positioning. And prominent figures like Larry Fink stating that there was too much leverage in the system to make it attractive to institutional buyers.

After seeing the last cycle top exactly when the 4 year cycle predicted it would on Oct 6 2025 followed by the 10/10 leverage wipeout, it got me thinking that this was the ideal scenario for institutional players to change market structure.

Get all the crypto native traders and investors to sell at the expected top, wipeout a big chunk of who was left quickly thereafter and then drop the market to validate the 4 year cycle.

After that validation let the bear market play out somewhat normally albeit weaker so that native investors are sidelined waiting for the expected bottom in October.

Then create conditions for a violet reversal to the upside leaving crypto natives without a position and unwilling to buy back in higher thus removing the source of traditional leverage so that tradfi/institutions can step in to control the market.

What are your thoughts?

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