On May 5th during Strategy’s earnings call, Saylor actually said “We may be required to sell Bitcoin” to cover preferred stock dividends. This is the same guy who’s been saying he’ll never sell for like three years straight. Honestly I was pretty surprised when I saw that.

He’s sitting on over 550k BTC, average cost around 68k, and they owe something like 1.5B a year in dividends. Cash flow can’t cover that, so it’s either more debt, more shares, or sell some BTC. Then two days later he walks it back and says he was just “clapping back at shorts and haters.” Ok sure, but you already said what you said.

When the news dropped I checked funding rate on bydfi and coinglass both showed it going negative right away.Shorts were piling in hard. But I watched it for a few hours and BTC barely moved. Spot buyers kept stepping in. In my experience when funding goes negative but price holds flat like that, what usually comes next is a short squeeze.

I was watching the order book too. Sell side wasn’t getting thicker, and on chain there wasn’t any big movement of BTC into exchanges either. At least from the data, the market wasn’t really pricing in Saylor actually selling.

I think he’s not gonna sell anytime soon. But what changed is the expectation. It went from “absolutely never” to “probably not but maybe.” For anyone who’s been riding the Strategy narrative to go long, that’s a new variable to think about.

Curious what you guys think about this divergence between funding and price. Anyone else watching this?

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