The 4-year cycle is just a belief that what happened in the past will happen again. But history and technology are just the opposite. Everything evolves. Someone at Xerox or Kodak maybe thought that people would always make copies and that everyone would still take pictures. They do — but using different tools.

I have read multiple times about this 4-year cycle, but it doesn’t make sense at all. If someone believes that in four years something will double its price, why not buy it now?

What was sexy four years ago may be horrendous now. Things change. Context changes. Don’t drive looking in the rearview mirror.

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