I’ve been sharing these liquidation maps (see post history for proof) from https://wangr.com/whalewatch/liquidationmap/btc since about a month now because all the others were implying with posts we go “up”.

I think with existing liquidation maps we have a major flaw in that they are calculated but don’t take into to account that

Accounts are in cross, according to my data shorts are much more conservative and very few of them are full risk (full account margin), thus the implied liquidation for shorts is much much lower than the real liquidation is, unless they go full yolo on other positions.

Distance matters, I think you have to think about it like magnets and physics, I did a short stint (intern) at a large tradfi market maker a while ago. I think the general misconception is that they have a long term plan. It’s not. The market maker cares about the spread between the buyer and seller for most, there is much safer, faster lower hanging fruit within a 0.5-2% move than 20-30%. They are all probability based, there is no person behind the wheel, it has somewhat of a snowball effect but there is no grand agenda, i.e. look there is 10k BTC of liquidity at 110k, let’s make the price go up. If the price is 109.5k sure, but otherwise no. You won’t make it in one move, unless coordinated it will take quite a bit and until then that liquidity has rebalanced.

The algorithms train on that the probability is so low it won’t give it a change and they would lose money.

Market makers are not necessarily evil either, they’re here to match buyers and sellers.

I do believe there is a whole lot of manipulation going on, but if liquidity matters it’s to be taken with a grain of salt, and I would say short term, immediate liquidity is much more important to look at than long term, possibly, maybe, liquidity still there in 20 days after 50% rise (yes 80k + 40k == 120k)

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